Ireland’s EU Presidency: What shifting global trade means for Irish businesses

BDO Ireland
Insights
2026
Ireland’s EU Presidency: What shifting global trade means for Irish businesses

Ireland’s EU Presidency: What shifting global trade means for Irish businesses

With the upcoming Irish Presidency of the EU, it has possibly never been a more sensitive time in our Economic History to be leading the EU Agenda. This is a delicate tightrope for Ireland, with its open global economy, heavy reliance on US investment and inter-connection with the UK. Arguably, in some cases, our relationship with countries outside of the EU has as much of a deciding impact on our economy as our relationship with the EU. Balancing these potentially competing priorities will be a defining factor for us as we head into the Presidency.

Ireland’s economy is deeply exposed to global trade flows, and in recent years that exposure has become more consequential rather than less. Tariffs and geopolitics, once treated as separate considerations, are now tightly bound together, with trade increasingly deployed by countries as a strategic tool to secure growth, ensure security and enable access to critical resources.

What has become clear over the past year, and particularly over the last 12 months, is that this is not a temporary position. The global trade system will not revert to the familiar, and the interconnected pillars of economic nationalism and geo-politics will now influence company growth going forward.

On the horizon there are a few specific developments for Ireland to manoeuvre:

One is ensuring support for the UK as Keir Starmer’s government moves closer to Europe and potentially to re-entry into the European Union. Obviously, this would be of significant benefit to Irish exporters, with the UK being our closest market both geographically and traditionally. In particular the, UK is looking at dynamic alignment of food regulations with the EU, leading to the potential removal of SPS, Health Cert and Control requirements on these goods. This would be a welcome development for our food exporters.
The second key issue will be managing the relationship between Europe and the U.S., on which Ireland depends heavily for Inward Investment and economic growth.

Focusing on the US, the period from the introduction of the Liberation Day tariffs in April 2025 (only a year ago) has probably been the most challenging in recent history for Irish Exporters after Brexit.

The scale of Ireland’s exposure is stark. In 2025 the US was Irelands largest export market, with almost 43% of total exports going to the US, an increase of over 50% on 2024. While some of the uplift reflected stockpiling ahead of anticipated tariff changes in early 2025, the figures nonetheless underline a central truth: Ireland’s economic performance is heavily dependent on the US market. As a result, US trade policy now plays an outsized role in shaping Irish economic outcomes.

Throughout 2025, many companies responded cautiously to this shifting environment. Strategic decisions were delayed, not through indecision but through uncertainty. There remained a sense that volatility might ease, or that political change could restore a degree of predictability. In the meantime, businesses focused on pragmatic, low-risk measures: reviewing tariff classifications, checking duty rates, refining customs valuations and, where possible, sharing additional costs with customers and distributors.

While we would have entered 2026 hoping that some stability might ensue this has not turned out to be the case. Again, focusing solely on Trade issues, in the last three months we have seen the crisis in Greenland potentially erupt into a further trade war, IEEPA tariffs ruled illegal, new Section 122 Tariffs introduced on a temporary basis to replace IEEPA, ongoing challenges to the EU-US “Trade Agreement”, new Section 301 investigations specifically calling out Ireland. Most recently, new announcements in relation to potential S232 tariffs on Pharmaceuticals (not withstanding these are heavily limited by many exclusions including sales price agreements and Pharmaceutical investment in the US) along with changes to the duty charges on steel and aluminium derivatives.

Therefore, companies must now operate on the assumption that the old WTO led march of globalisation has been altered, and a new more fractured global trade model has emerged. The slightly over-used attributes of resilience and agility have become essential board-level attributes rather than operational buzzwords.

The challenge, as always however, is to translate those qualities into practical, structured action.

What should companies do now:

In our view the first requirement for companies is clarity.

Businesses need to determine which of their products are exposed to tariffs, how those tariffs apply and what the real cost implications are.
This involves confirming tariff classifications, verifying origin rules, and ensuring that inter-company pricing structures are both accurate and tax-compliant.
In addition, we often see mis-understanding on contract terms and who the responsibility for duties on imports lie with.

Companies also need to be up to speed in assessing and scenario mapping planning for potential changes in reciprocal or sector-specific measures. For example, the recent announcements regarding new tariffs on pharmaceuticals where companies have not invested in the US, and changes to the application of tariffs on steel and aluminium derivatives. These potential risks are part of a companies required scenario planning for the future and keeping track of these, along with all other potential trade measures, becomes an essential part of managing your profit forecasts.

Once that baseline is established, attention can turn to mitigation. There remains scope for lawful, non-disruptive measures that reduce duty exposure without reshaping entire supply chains. These may again include reclassification, origin planning or valuation techniques such as first-sale structures or unbundling. This also requires closer integration between customs, tax and transfer-pricing functions to avoid unintended consequences on your tax liabilities.

Beyond these immediate steps lies the more difficult task of strategic agility. Medium- to long-term planning now needs to account for a world in which trade relationships can contract or expand rapidly, sometimes for political rather than economic reasons. This means diversifying export markets where feasible, strengthening supply-chain resilience, and developing clear cost-sharing frameworks with importers and distributors.

For Ireland, this recalibration must be approached with balance. The United States will remain our largest and most important export market for the foreseeable future, and Ireland continues to host a significant base of US multinationals. Managing that relationship is therefore essential.

At the same time, diversification is no longer optional. The European Union’s efforts to deepen trade links elsewhere - including with Canada, Mercosur, India and Australia - reflect a recognition that countries need regional trade agreements outside of the traditional WTO MFN trading arrangements. As European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has noted, the agreement with India alone would open access to a market of two billion people, representing almost a quarter of global GDP. Assessing potential growth in these markets in terms of purchases and sales should be factored into growth and supply chain security decisions.

The central message for Irish businesses is not one of alarm, but of adaptation. Global trade has entered a more fragmented, unstable and contested phase, and success will depend on how effectively companies understand, manage and de-risk their supply chains. In that context, preparation and knowledge is no longer a nice to have - It is a prerequisite.

Content adapted from Finance Dublin.