The Central Bank in its recent economic forecast also estimated that surplus inventories could last until Q3 2026, therefore continuing this trend for the next few months. Added to this is continuing global demand and continued investment in Ireland and therefore growth in exports should pick up from the second half of the year.
The largest multinational companies in the pharmaceutical sector will also have been relatively insulated from the results of the S232 pharmaceutical investigation earlier this month where continued exemption from tariffs was provided to those with both preferable sales arrangements (MFN agreements) with the US and where promises of US investment have been agreed.
Secondly, however, the statistics make for interesting reading in terms of our exports outside of pharmaceuticals. Exports in the food, machinery and miscellaneous sector are doing well in terms of non-US exports where many have suffered tariffs through 2025.
In particular, companies exporting machinery made of steel will, for some of their products, be hit with duties of now up to 50% along with an unfavourable new method for calculating those duties. This has now shifted for many products to calculating duty on the full value of the product rather than the steel content.
ROW sales should however grow going forward as the EU makes a concerted effort to open markets in Mercosur, India and Australia.
Also important is to look at our GB/NI sales. GB remains one of our top three export markets, with exports increasing €257.9m in February. Food exporters will be hopeful of a successful outcome to the current EU-US negotiations into removing SPS checks and Health Certs on food products.
Agricultural produce exports grew from €11bn in 2024 to €12bn in 2025. Key markets were the UK (€4.43bn) in 2024, (€4.97bn) in 2025 and the EU, (€4.63bn) in 2024, (€5.21bn) in 2025. Food and drink exports comprise 8% of total Irish exports.
The February 2026 figures predate the start of the Iran war. Future monthly data will be informative in terms of whether increased input costs (diesel, etc) and higher global inflation impact on exports.
All in all, however as we move into 2026 and as indicated in our recent BDO Global Quarterly Trade report, global trade in early 2026 continues to be shaped by legal uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and structural shifts in supply chains. In the near term, a convergence of geopolitical risk, industrial policy and supply-chain reconfiguration is likely to define the direction of travel, with instability in the Middle East acting as a catalyst.